The possibility of re-imposing an import duty on yellow peas in India next year is currently a matter of concern for Canadian trade analysts and exporters.

As of now, India has allowed duty-free imports of yellow peas from Canada until December 31, 2024. However, there is uncertainty over whether this exemption will be extended beyond this deadline.

Critics argue that if the import of yellow peas from Canada is disrupted, it could significantly impact Canada, which is one of the largest exporters of yellow peas to India.

In the first two months of the current marketing season (August-September 2024), India imported 387,000 tonnes of yellow peas from Canada, making it the largest buyer, followed by China with 222,000 tonnes.

Several factors will influence whether the import duty exemption is extended. The outcome of India's Rabi season sowing, particularly for pulses like gram, lentil, and pea, as well as weather conditions, will play a key role. Additionally, the domestic production of pulses, especially moong, has been good, which may reduce the need for imports in early 2025.

The arrival of new pigeon pea supplies in December-January, along with continued imports of urad and desi gram, could further stabilize India's pulse supply.

If these factors lead to a sufficient supply of pulses in India, the government may not feel the need to extend the duty-free import period for yellow peas.

Consequently, the likelihood of a re-imposition of the import duty on yellow peas remains dependent on how the pulse market and weather conditions unfold in the coming months.