Monsoon Faces Potential Threat from El Niño

18-Mar-2026 04:06 PM

New Delhi. Concerns are being raised that the activity of the El Niño weather cycle is likely to intensify during the current year—precisely at the time when the Southwest Monsoon is at its peak.

The monsoon typically arrives in June; after peaking in July and August, its intensity begins to wane from September onwards as it commences its withdrawal phase.

This year, there is a 97 percent probability of El Niño emerging between July and September—a period that coincides with the peak rainfall season across the country. This also happens to be the critical period for the cultivation of Kharif crops.

The onset of El Niño often tends to weaken the monsoon, and the resulting reduction in rainfall heightens the risk of drought in various parts of the country.

Consequently, this implies that just when the country is poised for the vigorous sowing of Kharif crops, monsoon rainfall could face disruptions.

This could adversely impact the cultivation of paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, and coarse cereals. A reduction in the area under cultivation, coupled with the absence of timely and adequate rainfall, could lead to a decline in overall agricultural production.