IMD raises 2025 monsoon forecast

28-May-2025 09:02 AM

IMD raises 2025 monsoon forecast
★ The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its monsoon forecast for 2025, increasing the projection to 106% of the ★ Long Period Average (LPA). In April, the forecast stood at 105%.
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Key highlights:
★ June rainfall is expected to be above normal, at over 108% of the LPA.
★ ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) conditions are currently neutral, which is favorable for the monsoon.
★ IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) is expected to remain slightly negative.
★ The monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24, the earliest since 2009.
★ It reached Mumbai 16 days early, the earliest onset since 1950.
★ However, experts caution that the monsoon's arrival date has no direct correlation with total seasonal rainfall.
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Impact on agriculture and economy:
★ Good rainfall in western and central India is likely to boost the production of pulses and oilseeds, reducing import dependence.
★ A strong kharif harvest could help control food inflation.
★ This may provide the RBI room to reduce interest rates in the upcoming fiscal year.
★ Agriculture is projected to contribute 16.35% to India’s GDP in FY25.
★ Overall, a robust and well-distributed monsoon is expected to significantly support India’s agriculture, inflation management, and economic growth.