Domestic Sugar Output Estimated at 350 Lakh Tonnes

21-Jul-2025 04:56 PM

New Delhi. While Brazil, the world’s top sugar producer and exporter, faces a decline in production, India is likely to see a significant increase in sugar output in the upcoming season.

Industry and trade analysts point to favorable monsoon rainfall and an expected expansion in sugarcane acreage across major producing states as the key drivers behind the projected rise.

According to the Indian Sugar and Bio Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), India’s sugar production in the 2024–25 season is estimated to fall by 17.5 percent to 262 lakh tonnes compared to the previous year — the lowest in five years.

However, a strong start to the 2025 monsoon, with June rainfall 9 percent above average and a similarly favorable outlook for July, is expected to improve the condition of the sugarcane crop and boost production in the 2025–26 season.

Global sugar prices have begun to recover, with raw sugar and white sugar futures rising on the New York and London exchanges. If the uptrend continues, India’s sugar exports could pick up after facing a slowdown due to weaker international prices.

A major rating agency and an industry association have projected India’s sugar production to rise by 18–19 percent to 340–350 lakh tonnes in the 2025–26 marketing season. Of this, around 40 lakh tonnes may be diverted for ethanol production, leaving 300–310 lakh tonnes for direct consumption.

At the close of the current marketing season on 30 September 2025, surplus sugar stocks are estimated at 50–52 lakh tonnes. With fresh production of 300–310 lakh tonnes, total availability in the next season could reach 350–360 lakh tonnes — well above domestic consumption levels.