The environment of rising and strengthening in the price of palm oil is likely to continue.

20-Sep-2024 07:41 PM

Mumbai. World renowned analyst of edible oil industry and trade sector Dorab Mistry says that the environment of rising and strengthening in the prices of palm oil may continue in the coming months. B40 program may be announced in Indonesia.

The market sentiment is very bullish, due to which the price of palm oil may become uncompetitive compared to other edible oils.

The last time when the B35 program was implemented in Indonesia beyond K30, it took about 7 months for the palm oil market to return to normal.

It is worth noting that the high production season of palm oil is currently going on in top exporting countries like Indonesia and Malaysia,

which will continue till November 2024 and if the export is affected due to high prices at such a time, then the outstanding surplus stock of palm oil may increase in both the countries.

Dorab Mistry has estimated the futures price of crude palm oil (CPO) for the third month contract at the Kuala Lumpur-based Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) Exchange to be 3700 ringgit per tonne, while between October 2024 and June 2025, it is expected to increase to 4500 ringgit per tonne.

According to the analyst, a new bullish and strong environment may start in the palm oil market in the January-March 2025 quarter because during this period there will be the Lunar New Year festival in China and the demand for palm oil will increase for the Ramadan festival in Muslim countries. 

It will be necessary to keep an eye on the fluctuations in the palm oil market. Customs duty has been increased on it in India.

As a result, it is important to see whether there is any impact on imports there or not. By the first fortnight of November, the festive season will end in India and then the winter season will begin.