Red Chili Prices Unlikely to Spike Despite Production Concerns
13-Dec-2025 10:56 AM
Guntur: Although domestic production of red chilies is expected to decline by about 20 percent during the 2025-26 season due to a reduction in sown area and crop damage from excessive rainfall and pest and disease outbreaks, high carryover stocks will ensure smooth supply and availability, making a sharp increase in prices unlikely. Prices may see some improvement if export demand is strong.
The president of the Guntur-based Chili Exporters Association says that the area sown with red chilies this year is only around 70 percent compared to last year.
Sowing has been lower this year in all three major producing states of South India – Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka.
It is difficult to give an accurate production estimate at this time. A clearer picture of production will emerge in the first week of January.
According to the association, there are large carryover stocks of red chilies in the producing states, which could keep prices under pressure.
It is estimated that Andhra Pradesh has 55 lakh bags, Karnataka about 45 lakh bags, and Telangana approximately 36 lakh bags of red chili stocks.
On the other hand, demand for Indian red chilies is weak in China, the largest importing country, due to better domestic production there.
According to another analyst, the area sown with red chilies has decreased by 15-30 percent this year, and production is likely to decline by about 20 percent.
Overall, domestic production of this important spice is estimated to fall from 14.10 lakh tonnes in the 2024-25 season to around 11.40 lakh tonnes in the current 2025-26 season.
In most major producing areas of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the flowering and fruiting process of the red chili crop has already begun, while in Karnataka, sporadic arrivals of new produce have started.
Although some instances of pest and disease outbreaks affecting crops have been reported in certain areas, overall, this is not expected to significantly impact production.
According to analysts, approximately 15.7 million bags of red chilies are currently stocked in cold storage facilities across the country, which is 14 percent more than last year. Last November, around 13.8 million bags of red chilies were available. Prices remain stable.