Prospects for Opening Up Wheat Exports Dim

09-Feb-2026 04:09 PM

New Delhi: Although the government has withdrawn the stock limit order on wheat and allowed the export of 500,000 tonnes of wheat products, considering the production and high stocks during the current year, the possibility of allowing commercial wheat exports may be in jeopardy.

This is because there are concerns about the onset and activation of the El Niño weather pattern in June-July this year, which could pose a threat to the Kharif crops.

This would necessitate the government maintaining sufficient availability of food grains in the domestic market to ensure national food security.

The wheat sowing area in the current Rabi season has reached an all-time high of 334.17 lakh hectares, an increase of 6.13 lakh hectares, and the weather remained largely favorable for the crop until January 2026.

However, there are predictions of less rainfall and higher temperatures in February-March, which could create problems for the crop.

Although a high-level inter-ministerial committee had discussed the issue of opening up wheat exports, and it seemed that the government might take a positive decision in this regard, the possibility has now become dim given the current circumstances.

The government may now wait at least until March. February is a crucial month for the wheat crop. Commercial wheat exports have been banned since May 2022, and despite a record domestic production of 1179.40 lakh tonnes in 2024-2025, exports were not allowed because the government feared a surge in domestic market prices.