News Capsule: Russia Cuts Wheat Export Forecast, Global Wheat Market Likely to Find Support
30-Jul-2026 09:16 AM
News Capsule: Russia Cuts Wheat Export Forecast, Global Wheat Market Likely to Find Support
★ Russian agricultural consultancy SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russia's 2026/27 wheat exports to 446 lakh tonnes, down from its earlier estimate of 465 lakh tonnes. The revision is mainly due to continued navigation disruptions in the Sea of Azov, which have slowed grain shipments.
★ The consultancy also reduced its barley export forecast from 34 lakh tonnes to 32 lakh tonnes. However, it raised its corn export estimate from 34 lakh tonnes to 36 lakh tonnes, supported by a larger crop and strong demand from Iran.
★ As a result, Russia's total grain and pulse exports are now projected at 538 lakh tonnes, compared with the previous estimate of 561 lakh tonnes.
★ The 2025/26 season had been exceptionally strong for Russian exports, with wheat shipments reaching 460 lakh tonnes, barley exports 50 lakh tonnes, and corn exports 46 lakh tonnes, all higher than the previous year.
★ Navigation in the Sea of Azov is unlikely to return to normal in the near term. According to SovEcon, the issue is primarily a logistics bottleneck rather than a supply shortage. If the disruption persists, more grain will remain within Russia, putting pressure on domestic wheat prices while reducing export availability.
★ As the world's largest wheat exporter, any decline in Russian shipments could prompt Asian buyers to seek alternative suppliers.
★ If India's export policy remains supportive and domestic supplies are adequate, wheat exports from India to traditional markets such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar could increase. At the same time, lower Russian exports are expected to support global wheat prices, while additional supplies retained within Russia may keep domestic wheat prices under pressure.