News Capsule: MPOC: Palm Oil Prices Likely to Stay Firm in July
20-Jun-2026 08:01 AM
News Capsule: MPOC: Palm Oil Prices Likely to Stay Firm in July
★ According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC), crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to trade between RM4,400 and RM4,650 per tonne in July 2026.
★ The council said concerns over tighter supplies in Indonesia and the growing risk of El Niño are supporting the palm oil market. If El Niño strengthens during July-August, it could reduce rainfall across Southeast Asia and India, potentially affecting palm oil production in the coming months.
★ Malaysia’s palm oil production fell 6.9% month-on-month to 1.51 million tonnes in May. However, palm oil exports during January-May 2026 rose 13.8%, with India remaining one of the key buyers.
★ Meanwhile, US soybean oil is trading at a significant premium to Argentine soybean oil. This has reduced the competitiveness of US exports and may encourage global buyers to rely more on palm oil and South American vegetable oils, providing additional support to palm oil prices.
★ However, vegetable oil inventories remain high in major importing countries such as India and China. As a result, demand could stay subdued, limiting the scope for a sharp rise in palm oil prices.
★ Overall, the near-term outlook for palm oil remains firm, supported by supply concerns and weather risks, although abundant stocks in importing countries may cap further gains.