News Capsule: Agriculture Canada Cuts 2026-27 Lentil Carryout Forecast by 29%
22-Aug-2026 12:06 PM
News Capsule: Agriculture Canada Cuts 2026-27 Lentil Carryout Forecast by 29%
★ Agriculture Canada has sharply reduced its 2026-27 lentil carryout forecast to 1.09 million tonnes from 1.54 million tonnes in July, a reduction of 450,000 tonnes or about 29%.
★ The lower carryout is mainly due to reduced old-crop stocks, lower new-crop production and higher exports. Agriculture Canada raised its 2025-26 lentil export estimate by 200,000 tonnes, while cutting the 2026-27 production forecast by 150,000 tonnes and raising exports by 100,000 tonnes.
★ Demand for Canada’s new-crop lentils is showing an encouraging start, but the market will depend heavily on Australia’s red lentil crop. High freight costs remain another concern for buyers.
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Pea Carryout Rises
★ In contrast, Agriculture Canada raised its 2026-27 pea carryout forecast to 860,000 tonnes from 810,000 tonnes in July. The increase resulted from a 50,000-tonne reduction in the 2025-26 export estimate.
★ Strong demand from China and India is expected to support Canadian pea exports in 2026-27. However, yields will be crucial. Lower-than-average yields could tighten the balance sheet, while higher yields could increase stocks and put pressure on prices.
★ Despite the sharp cut in lentil carryout, analysts say stocks remain relatively large and could continue to limit price gains. The impact of the large 2025-26 crop is expected to remain a key factor in the market.