June Monsoon Rainfall 40% Below Normal Average

30-Jun-2026 01:44 PM

New Delhi: The onset of the southwest monsoon this year has been highly disappointing. Rainfall during June—the first month of the monsoon season—was approximately 40 percent below the Long Period Average (LPA), leading to a significant drop in the sowing area for major Kharif crops. The pace of the monsoon remains sluggish.

It appears unlikely that there will be a dramatic improvement in the monsoon's intensity, momentum, or activity during the remaining three months—July, August, and September. By June 29, national rainfall stood at only 9.21 cm, which was 42 percent below the normal average. While the rainfall situation was somewhat satisfactory during the first fortnight of June, the deficit widened to 47 percent in the second half.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected rainfall at 90 percent of the LPA for the season; the LPA is estimated at 86.86 cm, implying actual rainfall could be around 78.17 cm. Assuming June's total rainfall was 10 cm, an additional 68.17 cm of rain would be required during the July–September quarter to reach that 90 percent mark. However, given the monsoon's weakened state due to the El Niño effect, achieving 90 percent of the LPA seems unlikely this time.

One weather model even indicates that rainfall for the entire monsoon season (June–September) could be merely 50 percent of the long-term average, a prospect that is deeply concerning for the Indian agricultural sector. This could lead to a decline in Kharif crop production.