Indian Ocean Dipole to Impact El Niño

09-Apr-2026 06:05 PM

Thiruvananthapuram. Weather forecasting centers across various nations have indicated the likelihood of the El Niño weather cycle emerging and remaining active during the second half of this year. It is anticipated that this will have an impact on India as well. However—to what extent this impact will be potent, widespread, and extensive—may be determined, at least partially, by the changes occurring within the Indian Ocean Dipole.

El Niño is generally considered detrimental to the Southwest Monsoon, which remains active from June to September; this is because its influence often disrupts rainfall patterns and triggers drought-like crises in certain parts of the country. The future of the Kharif crops hinges entirely upon the rainfall brought by the Southwest Monsoon. Consequently, diminished rainfall could adversely affect the production of these Kharif crops.

Climate forecasting centers are currently predicting the occurrence of a 'Super El Niño' this year. While Super El Niño events were previously observed in 1982, 1992, and 2015, the monsoon rainfall in 1997 remained largely normal despite its presence. The extent to which the 2026 El Niño will impact the monsoon remains to be seen and will become evident in the coming months.

While the El Niño and La Niña weather cycles originate in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is regarded as their counterpart; as such, this dipole could play a decisive role in determining the nature and trajectory of the El Niño phenomenon. This situation is being monitored closely. Farmers are already distressed by the apprehension regarding potential shortages of certain chemical fertilizers, and the looming threat of El Niño has only served to further exacerbate their anxieties.