★ India may move to further restrict sugar exports as it looks to increase ethanol blending in petrol beyond 20 per cent (E20). The government has already achieved the E20 target and is now exploring higher blending levels, which could require greater diversion of sugarcane towards ethanol production.

★ As a result, sugar availability for domestic consumption may come under pressure, prompting the government to impose stricter controls or even curb exports to keep prices stable within the country.

★ India’s export policy has shifted in recent years depending on production trends. In 2022-23, exports were restricted due to lower output. In 2023-24, despite a bumper crop, no exports were allowed. In 2024-25, 9 lakh tonnes were exported out of the permitted 10 lakh tonnes. In the current 2025-26 season, exports of about 3.6 lakh tonnes have taken place so far against the allowed 15.9 lakh tonnes.

★ Meanwhile, the issue of pending dues to sugarcane farmers remains a concern for the industry. As of end-March 2026, around ₹16,918 crore remains unpaid, even though about 84 per cent of the total dues have been cleared.

★ Despite having an annual ethanol production capacity of करीब 1,000 crore litres, demand has been relatively weak. Oil marketing companies placed orders for only 288.51 crore litres in the first cycle, indicating a gap between capacity and offtake.

★ The possible return of El Niño is another risk factor. A weaker monsoon could impact sugarcane output, as seen in the 2024-25 season when sugar production dropped to around 261 lakh tonnes from 320 lakh tonnes in the previous year.

★ Overall, as India pushes ahead with its ethanol blending policy, maintaining domestic sugar supply and price stability may necessitate tighter export controls in the coming months.