★ Strong sugar production in Brazil is putting pressure on international sugar prices. In the first half of July, Brazil’s Center-South region sugar output rose 15% year-on-year to 3.4 MMT. However, in the early part of the 2025/26 season, cumulative production has fallen 9.2% y/y to 15.6 MMT, while in 2024/25 production had already declined 3.4% to 44.11 MMT.

★ Higher export prospects from India are also bearish for prices. Favourable monsoon rains are expected to boost cane and sugar output in 2025/26. As of August 4, cumulative rainfall stood at 500.8 mm, 4% above normal. The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association has sought permission to export 2 MMT of sugar next season. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projects India’s 2025/26 sugar output to rise 19% to 35 MMT, compared to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT in 2024/25.

★ Czarnikow estimates the 2025/26 global sugar surplus at 7.5 MMT — the largest in eight years. The USDA projects global sugar output to rise 4.7% to a record 189.3 MMT, with ending stocks up 7.5% to 41.2 MMT.

★ China’s June sugar imports surged 1,435% y/y to 420,000 MT. Thailand’s 2024/25 production rose 14% to 10 MMT, with a further 2% increase expected in 2025/26. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of 5.47 MMT, while cutting production estimates to 174.8 MMT.