El Niño chances rise to 97%, impact on crops likely
17-Mar-2026 11:38 AM
El Niño chances rise to 97%, impact on crops likely
★ According to the APEC Climate Center, the probability of an El Niño event during July–September 2026 has increased to around 97%, while the likelihood during the early April–September period is estimated at 84.6%.
★ The outlook suggests rising sea surface temperatures, indicating the development of El Niño, which may lead to below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures during India’s June–September monsoon season.
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Likely impact on crops:
★ Paddy (kharif): Delayed transplanting and potential yield loss due to weak rainfall
★ Pulses (urad, mung, tur/arhar): Sowing and yields may be affected due to moisture stress
★ Soybean: Lower rainfall could pressure productivity
★ Cotton: Early growth may be impacted; later stages will depend on rainfall distribution
★ Sugarcane: Water stress may affect yield and recovery
★ Maize: High temperatures and low moisture could reduce output
★ Overall, El Niño conditions may put pressure on kharif crop production and increase volatility in agricultural markets.