Apprehensions of Severe Impact of El Niño on Kharif Crop Yields
19-May-2026 06:03 PM
New Delhi. A study conducted by agricultural scientists at a research institute under the aegis of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) has found that, historically, the onset of the El Niño weather cycle in India leads to a drastic decline in the yield rates of major Kharif crops. The risk of damage is particularly high in those regions of the country that are dependent on rainfall.
The study report states that during El Niño years, the production of paddy (rice) in an average of 77 districts, and that of maize in 65 districts across the country, witnessed a decline of more than 10 percent each. The impact of the El Niño weather cycle was observed to be most severe in states with high paddy production. These include Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Odisha, among others. Furthermore, a decline of over 10 percent was recorded in the yield rates of Jowar (sorghum) and Bajra (pearl millet) in 36 districts of the country.
Regions dependent on monsoon rainfall have frequently suffered severe crop damage during El Niño years. This time, the impact is feared to be more pronounced, as some experts are labeling this weather cycle a "Super El Niño." This implies that, during the current year, it may manifest in a more aggressive and intense form. Previously, El Niño events affecting India were generally of a moderate intensity, and their impact remained limited. This time, however, the situation could be somewhat different.
Due to scorching heat, high temperatures, and a lack of rainfall, rivers, streams, wells, and ponds have already begun to dry up. This will exacerbate the crisis regarding the availability of water for artificial irrigation. While it is unlikely that El Niño will trigger droughts across all parts of the country, rainfall patterns are expected to remain irregular and uncertain. Conversely, in certain regions, extremely torrential rains could lead to problems of waterlogging and flooding.