61% Chance of El Niño Arriving Between May and July

29-Apr-2026 08:38 PM

Thiruvananthapuram: The U.S. Climate Prediction Center has stated that indications suggest the process of El Niño formation has begun in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Observations from various weather and temperature models suggest that its arrival could occur over the coming months.

According to the Climate Center, a "Neutral" phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) currently prevails over the tropical Pacific Ocean, while the ENSO alert system is being monitored closely. The Center noted that there is currently a 61% probability of El Niño arriving between May and July 2026, as changes in oceanic activity continue to be monitored with great vigilance.

It is also suggested that the neutral phase may persist from April through June. This implies that during these months, either El Niño will not emerge, or—should it appear—its intensity will remain very low. The probability of El Niño developing and becoming active during this specific period is estimated at only 20%.

This suggests that the dynamics of the El Niño weather cycle may begin to intensify starting in late June. Currently, sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific Ocean are observed to be only slightly above average levels.

It appears that the impact of El Niño could begin to intensify in July and August—a period that coincides with the peak of the monsoon season in India. These two months typically witness the highest rainfall across the country, as well as the peak sowing period for *Kharif* crops.

There is a possibility that El Niño conditions could become quite strong in August, potentially causing damage to crops—particularly pulses, oilseeds, cotton, and sugarcane. Additionally, crops such as paddy (rice) and coarse cereals could be adversely affected in certain regions.