2026 Monsoon Forecast: Below-Normal Rainfall May Pressure Kharif Crops

13-Apr-2026 06:36 PM

2026 Monsoon Forecast: Below-Normal Rainfall May Pressure Kharif Crops
India’s 2026 southwest monsoon is expected to be weaker than normal, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) projecting rainfall at only 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during June–September. This marks the first below-normal monsoon forecast in three years and raises concerns for agriculture, water availability, and inflation. (The Economic Times)
Lower rainfall is likely to affect major kharif crops such as rice, soybean, cotton, maize, and pulses, especially in rain-fed farming regions where irrigation support is limited. Reduced soil moisture during sowing and vegetative growth stages could lower yields and delay planting in vulnerable states.
According to IMD, ENSO conditions are expected to remain neutral in the early phase of the season, but the probability of El Niño developing later is high. El Niño generally suppresses rainfall over India and can trigger drought-like conditions. However, a possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) toward the latter part of the season may partially offset rainfall deficits in some regions. (Reuters)
Regionally, central and western India are at greater risk of deficient rainfall, while parts of northeast India, northwest India, and southern peninsular regions may receive normal to above-normal precipitation. Uneven rainfall distribution could further complicate crop planning and reservoir management.

A weak monsoon may also impact:
Reservoir storage and irrigation supply
Rural demand and farm incomes
Foodgrain output and edible oil production
Inflation in cereals, pulses, and vegetables

The monsoon remains critical to India’s farm economy, as nearly half of cultivated land depends directly on seasonal rains.

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