61% Probability of El Niño Arriving Before July

06-May-2026 12:47 PM

New Delhi. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center has stated that, although the neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation may persist until June, the drought-inducing El Niño phenomenon could become active between May and July.

There is a 61 percent probability of its arrival prior to July. According to the Prediction Center, sea surface temperatures in the far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean have remained above average levels since early February; furthermore, since mid-April, this warming trend has begun to extend across most parts of the equatorial Pacific. Consequently, the likelihood of an El Niño event occurring continues to rise steadily.

The Asian continent—and India in particular—could face significant risks from the impact and adverse effects of El Niño. As a result, the Southwest Monsoon season may witness a rainfall deficit, raising concerns that the sowing and growth of Kharif crops could be adversely affected.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also forecast that, during the June-September 2026 period, rainfall across the country is likely to be 92 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

Previously, in 2023—when El Niño last occurred—the country recorded 94 percent of its average rainfall; during that time, approximately one-third of the country experienced either drought conditions or prolonged periods of dry and hot weather. This led to a decline in the production of various Kharif crops, including pulses, oilseeds, and cotton. This time around, it is projected that the impact of El Niño could persist until January 2027.