★ India’s wheat market is entering a critical phase, and the future of OMSS will largely depend on the outcome of today’s and the next few tenders. Early indications suggest that the quantities offered may remain limited. If this trend continues, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) may find it difficult to sustain regular OMSS tenders in the coming weeks.

★ Meanwhile, the new wheat crop has already started arriving in parts of lower Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat, and arrivals will soon expand to upper Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab. With harvesting progressing across major producing states, supply pressure in the market is expected to increase steadily.

★ The 2025-26 rabi season is widely expected to deliver record wheat production, keeping supplies abundant and arrivals strong during the peak harvesting months. As a result, wheat prices may remain under pressure and could stay below the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for an extended period in several markets.

★ If market prices remain below MSP or OMSS reserve prices, consuming states and flour millers are unlikely to buy wheat through OMSS. Instead, they may prefer direct procurement from surplus states where wheat would be available at more competitive prices. Previous tenders also reflected this trend, with participation concentrated in only a couple of states while most consuming regions showed limited interest.

★ Government wheat stocks are currently comfortable, and with a large new crop expected, storage capacity could become a concern in the coming months. In such a scenario, aggressive OMSS intervention may not be necessary unless market conditions change significantly.

★ Overall, with record production, early arrivals and adequate stocks, the wheat market appears structurally oversupplied in the short term. Private trade may increasingly rely on inter-state procurement rather than government stock releases, making the role of OMSS limited in the coming months.