Wheat Market Outlook Likely to Remain Uncertain

09-Apr-2026 08:54 PM

New Delhi. This year, the domestic wheat market is witnessing several contradictory or incongruous circumstances. On one hand, the area under wheat cultivation has expanded by 6.13 lakh hectares—rising from 328.04 lakh hectares in the previous season to reach 334.17 lakh hectares this time around—and weather conditions remained largely favorable for the crop until mid-March.

Based on this, the Union Ministry of Agriculture projected that wheat production would surge to an all-time high of 1,202.10 lakh tonnes. Conversely, the trade and industry sector acknowledged that while wheat production would likely exceed last year's figures, it would not surpass the 1,150 lakh tonne mark. For the previous season, the Ministry of Agriculture had estimated domestic wheat production at 1,179.40 lakh tonnes.

However, the scenario began to shift after mid-March. The wheat crop started sustaining damage due to storms, unseasonal rainfall, and hailstorms. Adverse weather conditions and natural calamities have impacted nearly all of the country's major wheat-producing states.

These include Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan. Collectively, these five states contribute over 95 percent of the wheat procured for the Central Pool. In these states, the wheat crop is feared to have suffered varying degrees of damage—ranging from minor to severe—due to storms, rain, and hail.

Consequently, domestic wheat production could potentially contract to hover around 1,130 lakh tonnes. Furthermore, the quality of the wheat grain has been severely compromised in certain regions; it has become discolored and has lost its natural luster.

To facilitate procurement, the government may be compelled to grant relaxations regarding the quality-related rules, terms, and standards. Wholesale market prices for this lower-quality wheat are likely to remain significantly depressed.