Weekly Review-Cumin

25-Jan-2025 07:30 PM

Fall in Cumin Prices: No Rise Possible

The cumin market has seen notable fluctuations recently. Prices have been suppressed despite expectations that demand would rise during Ramadan in January. Exports have not increased as anticipated, which has contributed to the ongoing price decline.

However, traders expect some modest price increases in early February if export demand picks up, though significant rises are unlikely. The sowing of cumin has seen an uptick, especially in Gujarat, which has helped maintain some optimism about the upcoming harvest.

In fact, sowing areas have increased slightly compared to last year. Despite a delayed arrival of new cumin in January, it’s expected that arrivals will be higher in February, especially in Gujarat, with Rajasthan's supply coming in around March-April.

Weather conditions have remained favorable for the crop, and if this continues, there could be a good harvest, though experts predict that production in 2025 may fall short of 2024's bumper crop. 

One of the more positive aspects for the cumin sector has been the strong export performance. With prices remaining lower, cumin exports have surged.

From April to October 2024, cumin exports more than doubled compared to the same period in 2023, and both November and December showed impressive year-on-year growth. However, much of the price movement in the coming months will depend on global production, particularly in countries like Turkey and Syria.

If these regions face lower crops, there may be upward pressure on prices, but overall, it looks like cumin prices will remain under pressure for the time being unless a significant increase in demand occurs. 

Would you like to dive deeper into how specific factors, like weather or export demand, might influence the cumin market in the coming months?