★ The US National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) raised its July 2025 almond crop forecast by 7% compared to May. In May, the estimated crop was 1.27 million metric tons, which has now been revised to 1.361 million metric tons. If the projection holds, this would be the second-largest crop after the 2020/21 season and nearly 10% higher than last year.

★ However, several experts and market analysts believe this estimate is overly optimistic. A gap between actual and projected acreage is possible. The 2024/25 season is expected to end with ending stocks of around 250,000 metric tons. If the crop meets the forecast, about 1.61 million metric tons of almonds would be available in the 2025/26 season, compared to 1.434 million metric tons this year. So far, contracts have been signed for 50,559 metric tons of shelled almonds from the new crop.

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★ In June 2025, US almond exports (shelled and unshelled) stood at 61,411 metric tons — 6.1% lower than the same month last year. Domestic shipments also fell 17.2% to 23,291 metric tons. Total shipments (domestic and international) were 84,701 metric tons in June, down 9.4% year-on-year.

★ India, in preparation for Diwali, imported 15,757 metric tons in June — a 28.9% increase. Italy (4,030 mt, up 64.6%) and Germany (3,096 mt, up 21.7%) also increased imports. However, demand from Spain (5,542 mt, down 7.7%) and the UAE (3,750 mt, down 46.9%) declined.

★ From 1 September 2024 to 30 June 2025, total US almond shipments (domestic and export) reached 1.111 million metric tons. India was the top buyer with 171,000 metric tons, followed by Spain, UAE, and the Netherlands. India’s almond imports are expected to rise further ahead of Diwali demand, which may improve availability in the market and potentially impact prices.