The signs of an increase in government procurement of paddy after an initial decline can be observed through several key developments:

1. Slow Start, Rapid Increase in Procurement: The initial slow pace of government procurement in the Kharif marketing season of 2024-25, particularly in major paddy-producing states like Punjab, Haryana, and Tamil Nadu, was due to factors like delayed harvesting and crop preparation. However, procurement accelerated after mid-November in states like Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and Bihar.

2. Increase in Total Procurement: Government procurement figures have already risen from 333.54 lakh tonnes last year to 340.35 lakh tonnes in the current season. This indicates a positive trend despite the initial slow phase.

3. Improvement in Specific States: In states like Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh, there has been a significant increase in procurement:

   • Chhattisgarh's procurement jumped from 21.20 lakh tonnes to 34.49 lakh tonnes.
   • Andhra Pradesh saw an increase from 5.74 lakh tonnes to 13.61 lakh tonnes. This surge shows that procurement is becoming more vigorous in these regions, especially in states with traditionally lower contributions to national procurement.

4. Delayed but Ongoing Procurement in Some States: In states like Bihar, procurement has seen a slight increase but remains lower than last year. However, procurement is still ongoing in states like Orissa and Bihar, where it tends to continue for an extended period.

5. Procurement Target in Chhattisgarh: The government has set a procurement target of 160 lakh tonnes for Chhattisgarh, indicating the state's growing importance in the procurement process.

6. Lesser Procurement in Punjab and Haryana: While procurement continues to decline in Punjab and Haryana, particularly in Punjab where it fell from 185.27 lakh tonnes to 172.27 lakh tonnes, and in Haryana from 58.93 lakh tonnes to 5.22 lakh tonnes, the overall increase in other states compensates for this decrease.

7. Procurement in Low-Contribution States: States with typically lower procurement contributions, such as Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Chandigarh, Maharashtra, Assam, and Uttarakhand, are reporting good procurement rates, further boosting the overall national figures.

In conclusion, while the initial phase saw a slow start in government procurement of paddy, the pace has now picked up significantly in many states, contributing to an overall increase in the national procurement figures for the 2024-25 season.