Projected Decline in India's Rice Production and Carryover Stocks

14-May-2026 03:54 PM

New Delhi. Due to the impact of the El Niño weather cycle—which is expected to result in a weaker Southwest Monsoon and reduced rainfall—India's paddy and rice production is feared to be partially affected this year. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), India's rice production is projected to stand at approximately 152 million tonnes during the 2025-26 season, a figure that could subsequently contract to around 150 million tonnes in the 2026-27 season.

Conversely, however, both domestic consumption and exports of rice are expected to witness an increase. Consequently, the carryover stock remaining at the end of the season is likely to decline from 53 million tonnes to approximately 50 million tonnes. This figure encompasses stocks held by government agencies, as well as those held by rice millers/processors and traders/stockists.

India is the world's leading exporter of rice, while it remains in constant competition with China for the top two spots in terms of production volume. A decline in India's rice stocks typically leads to a corresponding decline in global rice carryover stocks. The USDA has projected that India's rice exports will surge to an all-time high of 25 million tonnes during the 2026-27 marketing season—an increase of 2 million tonnes over the estimated export volume of 23 million tonnes for the 2025-26 season.

This development is expected to further bolster India's share in the international rice export market. Driven primarily by India's performance, the USDA has estimated that total global rice trade will rise from 60.28 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season to reach 63.01 million tonnes in the 2026-27 season.