The global wheat market in 2025 is facing complex dynamics that could influence prices. While a potential record production of wheat might exert downward pressure on prices, factors like supply complications and availability issues could provide some price support.

According to a report by BMI, the softening trend in wheat prices is expected to continue, particularly due to a better yield of soft red winter wheat.

The annual average price of wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is forecast to be $5.80 per bushel, lower than the previous expectation of $6.05 per bushel.

The US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NAS) has adjusted the seasonal average farm price for wheat in the 2024-25 season to $5.55 per bushel, reflecting a reduction of $0.05 per bushel. This price aligns with expectations in both the futures and spot markets.

However, analysts caution that the wheat supply situation in the US and globally could remain complicated in the next season.

This could prevent prices from dropping significantly, with some analysts predicting that wheat prices could stay slightly higher than current levels, potentially surpassing $6 per bushel on the CBOT.

Despite critics who believe there is little room for a major price increase, the continued uncertainty surrounding supply and availability could keep prices relatively strong.

This scenario echoes predictions made for 2024, where wheat prices faced downward pressure but didn't decline as expected.

In addition, the US is seeing a 17% increase in its final wheat stocks, which are projected to reach 81.5 crore bushels (220 lakh tonnes), potentially providing some stability to the market.

With Donald Trump's upcoming inauguration as the 47th President of the United States, his policies on agriculture, including wheat, will be closely watched, as the US remains one of the top wheat exporters in the world.