Potential Rainfall Deficit in August-September

30-Apr-2026 03:41 PM

Thiruvananthapuram: Forecasts suggest that rainfall from the Southwest Monsoon is likely to be significantly lower this year during August and September—two critical months for the sowing and growth of Kharif crops. According to a leading private weather agency, the influence of El Niño could result in rainfall levels reaching only 60 percent of the normal average in August and 70 percent in September.

It is noteworthy that crops sown during June and July reach their peak vegetative growth stage in August and September, after which the processes of flowering and grain formation gradually begin. If rainfall is scarce or erratic during this crucial phase, the average yield of these crops could suffer a severe decline.

Intensive harvesting and post-harvest preparations typically commence in October. Consequently, the overall production of Kharif crops will depend heavily on the weather and monsoon conditions prevailing during these two months.

According to the weather agency, the impact of El Niño is expected to intensify from late July, causing the monsoon to weaken as August begins. While monsoon rainfall may remain uncertain and erratic across most of the country's major agricultural states during August and September, provinces such as Bihar, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh are expected to receive near-normal rainfall.