★ The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a weaker-than-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, with rainfall expected at only 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during June–September. There is also a 66% probability that rainfall will remain in the “deficient to below normal” category. If this forecast proves accurate, it would mark the weakest monsoon since 2015.

★ A weak monsoon may affect oilseed crops, especially soybean and groundnut. Once considered a foreign crop, soybean has now become one of India’s major domestic oilseed crops. Last year, bumper production caused the gap between MSP and local market prices to widen to record levels, resulting in lower returns for farmers. While farmers in Madhya Pradesh received some support under the Bhavantar Scheme, growers in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Gujarat faced lower prices, which may reduce sowing interest this season.

★ Soybean is considered a hardy crop with strong resistance to weather fluctuations, insects, and rainfall variations. However, adequate soil moisture at the time of sowing is essential. If moisture is insufficient, germination may be affected, directly impacting production. A fall in soybean output due to weak monsoon could increase India’s dependence on soybean oil imports.

★ Groundnut crops may face similar risks. Although India does not import groundnut oil, domestic demand is largely met through local production. Any production decline could tighten supplies in the domestic market.

★ Experts believe that if weak monsoon forecasts by weather agencies come true, prices of all oilseed crops may remain firm in the coming months. This may support better returns for farmers, but could also increase inflationary pressure in the edible oil market.