News Capsule: Sugar: Production Up, But Supply Balance Under Pressure
08-Apr-2026 12:17 PM
News Capsule: Sugar: Production Up, But Supply Balance Under Pressure
★ Data presented at a conference organized by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) indicates that India’s sugar market in the 2025–26 season remains “balanced but under pressure.”
★ Despite a strong increase in production, overall availability has declined slightly and consumption has softened, suggesting that the market is operating on a tightly managed balance.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Production Up, But Buffer Stocks Lower
★ According to ISMA, total sugar production in 2025–26 is estimated at about 320 LMT, around 25 LMT higher than last year’s 295.07 LMT.
★ However, due to a sharp drop in opening stock from 78 LMT to 50.03 LMT, the total sugar availability has declined by about 4 LMT to 335 LMT.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Ethanol Diversion Continues
★ Sugarcane diversion for ethanol production may rise to about 35 LMT, bringing net sugar output to around 285 LMT.
★ This highlights the continued effectiveness of the government’s ethanol blending program, which is increasingly absorbing a portion of the cane supply.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Consumption and Exports Slightly Lower
★ Domestic consumption is expected to decline slightly from 280 MT to around 277 MT.
★ Exports may also fall from 9 MT to about 8 MT, indicating softer demand and continued export controls.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Stocks Stable, Policy Driving Balance
★ Closing stocks for the season are estimated at about 50.03 MMT, suggesting that supply and demand remain largely policy-managed.
★ ISMA’s latest assessment indicates that the Indian sugar market is currently in a “managed balance”, where government policy and supply management will continue to determine market direction rather than major supply shocks