News Capsule: Chances of El Niño Activity Increasing: Kharif Crops May Be Affected
09-Mar-2026 12:11 PM
News Capsule: Chances of El Niño Activity Increasing: Kharif Crops May Be Affected
★ According to the European weather agency ECMWF, El Niño may develop by May this year and could strengthen by August. Model data from 50 ensemble members suggests a 98% probability of a moderate El Niño, an 80% chance of a strong event, and a 22% possibility of a super El Niño.
★ Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and equatorial Pacific Ocean have already started rising rapidly. Atmospheric conditions are also becoming favorable for the development of El Niño.
★ If a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) develops simultaneously, the impact of El Niño on India’s monsoon may be reduced.
★ Currently, strong westerly winds and Kelvin waves in the Pacific Ocean are pushing warm water from west to east, accelerating the process of El Niño formation.
★ Rainfall during the rabi season has been lower than normal, resulting in reduced soil moisture levels.
★ The impact of El Niño could affect several Asian countries and may influence the production of kharif crops.