Likelihood of Severe Localized Impact from El Niño

05-Jun-2026 01:39 PM

New Delhi. It is almost certain that India will face the threat of the El Niño weather cycle this year. However, uncertainty remains regarding its intensity, activity, and strength. There is an apprehension that the Southwest Monsoon could weaken due to the impact of El Niño. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected national rainfall at 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) for this year, a figure significantly lower than that of the previous year.

However, the real issue lies in the uneven distribution of rainfall, as this could have severe regional consequences. While areas receiving good or torrential rainfall will see better Kharif crop yields, regions experiencing scanty or negligible rainfall could face a severe drought crisis. It is worth noting that temperatures remain quite high across various parts of the country from June to August.

In its April update, the Meteorological Department had forecast rainfall at 92 percent of the LPA, a figure that was revised down to 90 percent in the May report. If this forecast proves accurate, the year could turn out to be the driest since 2015. In 2015, rainfall was projected at 93 percent.

Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization has stated that there is an 80 percent probability of El Niño becoming active between June and August. This could serve as an alarm bell for India.