Monsoon Active in Kerala, but Slow to Advance Northward

05-Jun-2026 05:17 PM

Thiruvananthapuram: In line with the Meteorological Department's revised forecast, the Southwest Monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 4, 2026, showing significant activity on its very first day. Consequently, heavy rainfall was recorded across various parts of Kerala and in Mahe. However, its northward progression along the west coast is expected to be quite slow in the coming days, potentially delaying its arrival in states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh. Favorable monsoon winds are essential for this movement.

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Mumbai—a major metropolis on the country's west coast—might have to wait until June 22 for monsoon rains, whereas the monsoon typically arrives there around June 10. While the activity of the Southwest Monsoon is expected to intensify, El Niño could continue to weaken it.

The atmospheric pressure associated with El Niño's warming effect could hinder the formation of rain-bearing monsoon clouds, thereby reducing the likelihood of rainfall. Even if rain does occur, its intensity may remain below normal levels.

There is also uncertainty regarding the monsoon's timely arrival in other parts of the country, which could delay the sowing of Kharif crops. Monsoon rainfall is bolstered by low-pressure conditions; it remains to be seen how frequently and at what intervals such conditions will develop at sea this season.

The Southwest Monsoon will advance and bring rain, but the influence of El Niño makes it difficult to make definitive predictions regarding its trajectory and overall behavior.