The Indian Sugar and Bio Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has projected a reduction in domestic sugar consumption for the 2024-25 marketing season, estimating it at around 280 lakh tonnes, down from the previous season's expected consumption of 290-295 lakh tonnes. This forecast is based on several factors:

1. Reduced Free Sale Quota: The government has issued a free sale quota for the first four months of the season that is 7 lakh tonnes less than the previous season.
2. Increased Demand in Election Months: A higher sugar quota was allocated during the months of April, May, and June 2024 due to increased demand, especially linked to the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
3. Sugar Production and Crushing Pace: Sugarcane crushing has been steady across the country, but the total domestic sugar production from October to December 2024 is 95.40 lakh tonnes, significantly lower than the 113.01 lakh tonnes produced in the same period the previous year.
4. Operational Mills: The number of sugar mills has decreased from 512 to 493, though recovery rates of sugar from cane in major producing states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka have improved.
5. Ethanol Production Impact: A substantial increase in sugar consumption for ethanol production is expected to reduce the availability of sugar for food and industrial uses. The estimated sugar consumption for ethanol production has risen from 21.50 lakh tonnes to 40 lakh tonnes.
6. Sugar Stocks: Despite the reduced production, there are ample stocks from the 2023-24 season to meet the domestic demand for 2024-25, ensuring no immediate shortages.

This reduction in consumption is expected to result from the combination of less free-sale sugar being available, increased ethanol use, and a slightly lower production output compared to the previous year. However, ISMA reassures that the current stock levels will suffice to meet the market's needs.