The current situation in the Indian tur (arhar or tuvar) market indicates a significant softening of prices, primarily due to a combination of increased domestic supply, strong imports, and subdued demand. Here's a breakdown of the key factors at play:

Key Drivers of Price Softening:

1. Increased Domestic Supply:

   • The arrival of the new domestic crop of tur from major producing states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka is gaining momentum. This has boosted the availability of the pulse in markets.
   • As the production for the current Kharif marketing season is expected to be better, the overall availability of tur in the domestic sector has increased.

2. Import of Tur:

   • Tur imports are playing a significant role in keeping the domestic market supplied. The country has seen a sharp rise in imports, with the import volume for the first eight months of 2024 expected to reach a peak of 9.96 lakh tonnes, compared to 5.45 lakh tonnes during the same period last year.
   • Imports of tur from countries like Mozambique are being sold at competitive prices, with the price for imported tur currently at around Rs 6500 per quintal.

3. Lower Domestic Prices:

   • Prices have come down significantly from Rs 10,000 per quintal or higher just two to three months ago to around Rs 7,350–7,500 per quintal in major markets such as Mumbai and Chennai.
   • The price of tur in major domestic mandis like those in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra is also hovering around the Minimum Support Price (MSP), which for the current year has been set at Rs 7,550 per quintal.

4. Export Decline:

   • The export market is also seeing a decline in prices, with the export price of Myanmar-origin tur dropping from $960 per ton to $920 per ton in just one week. This indicates a global surplus, further contributing to price pressure.

5. Retail Dal Prices:

   • The reduction in whole tur prices has also translated into a drop in retail dal (split pulse) prices. The average retail price of dal at the all-India level fell from Rs 161.31 per kg a month ago to Rs 156.44 per kg by December 25, 2024, although it remains slightly higher than the price of Rs 155.08 per kg during the same period last year.

Market Conditions:

• Current Price Levels:

  • The price of tur in various mandis is slightly above the MSP, indicating a market that is well-supplied but still has some price cushion above government support prices. For example:
    • Pipariya Mandi (Madhya Pradesh): Rs 6,000–8,000 per quintal
    • Akola Mandi (Maharashtra): Rs 7,900–7,950 per quintal
    • Latur Mandi (Maharashtra): Rs 7,900–7,910 per quintal

• Supply Forecast:

  • The supply situation is set to improve further with the arrival of the new crop from Myanmar, which will likely enter the Indian market from February 2025, and the continued flow of domestic produce starting in January 2025.

Government Support:

• The central government has approved the purchase of a total of 9.66 lakh tonnes of tur in states like Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Haryana, although Maharashtra has not yet made a decision regarding procurement.

Conclusion and Market Strategy:

• Avoid High-Price Purchases: Given the increasing availability of tur and its relatively low prices compared to earlier in the year, it is advisable for traders, wholesalers, and consumers to avoid purchasing tur at high prices, as prices are expected to remain stable or continue to soften in the short term.
• Price Outlook: The combination of a bumper domestic crop, higher imports, and subdued demand suggests that prices will likely stay near the MSP levels or slightly lower in the coming months, offering opportunities for cost-effective procurement.

In summary, the tur market is currently in a phase of price correction, driven by favorable supply conditions both domestically and internationally.