Global Sugar Production Decline Likely to Keep Prices Firm

London. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has projected that global sugar production for the 2026-27 period will fall by 1 percent compared to the 2025-26 season, reaching 180.1 million tonnes—a figure 200,000 tonnes short of total global demand and consumption. Consequently, the sugar supply-demand equation is expected to remain complex, with prices likely to stay firm. In major producing nations like India and Thailand, sugarcane and sugar output are projected to decline, partly due to the impact of El Niño.

Although sugar futures prices for March contracts on the New York and London exchanges had softened due to specific factors, they recovered on November 13. On the New York Exchange, the price for raw sugar futures rose by 0.19 cents (11.04 percent), while on the London Exchange, the price for white sugar futures increased by $6.20 per tonne (1.20 percent).

In Brazil—the world’s leading sugar producer and exporter—the currency (the real) had previously strengthened but fell to a 17-month low on November 13. This shift has created the potential for an increase in Brazilian sugar exports. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer, while Thailand ranks as a major exporter; in both nations, the sugarcane crop is currently facing adverse weather conditions.