Global Rice Prices Likely to Remain High

New Delhi. The El Niño weather pattern is expected to lead to reduced rainfall across South Asia and Southeast Asia, likely causing a decline in paddy and rice production. Meanwhile, demand for rice remains strong across Asia and Africa. Consequently, global rice prices are expected to remain high and firm, at least until the first quarter of 2027—that is, through March 2027.

A trend of rising and firming global rice prices has already begun, and this momentum is likely to persist over the coming months. The strength, intensity, and dynamics of the El Niño phenomenon are expected to weaken after March 2027, at which point global paddy and rice production may return to normal levels.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), paddy is among the crops most severely affected by the El Niño weather pattern. The bulk of global rice production occurs in South and Southeast Asian nations—including China, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Myanmar—which are also significant exporters. Many other countries rely on rice imports.

Export offer prices for Indian rice have risen notably in recent weeks, driven by high domestic prices for paddy. African nations are purchasing large quantities of Indian rice to ensure their internal food security.