The global wheat market is facing a tightening of supplies despite an expected record production level for the 2024-25 season. While global wheat production is set to reach a record 793.2 million tonnes, consumption is projected to exceed that, rising to 801.9 million tonnes.

This imbalance is expected to reduce the global outstanding stock of wheat to 258.8 million tonnes by the end of the marketing season, a 3.6% decrease, marking the lowest level in nine years.

Key developments in major wheat-producing regions are contributing to this situation. In Russia, wheat production is expected to drop by 10% to 8.15 million tonnes, although exports are anticipated to rise.

Consequently, Russia's surplus stock of wheat is expected to fall sharply to 820,000 tonnes, the lowest since 2019-20, which could lead to higher global wheat prices. In the European Union, wheat production is forecasted to decrease by 9% to under 12.3 million tonnes, with declines in both sowing area and yield rate.

The reduction in stocks, especially in major exporters like Russia, is expected to support wheat prices in the global market, particularly as new crops become available around July-August 2024.