Estimate of Lower Rice Production Due to Decline in Paddy Acreage

New Delhi: The decline in the area under paddy cultivation, which began in June due to the impact of El Niño and a weak monsoon, continued through September this year. According to official data, the area under paddy cultivation as of September 18 stood at 42.928 million hectares, compared with a record 44.592 million hectares during the same period last year. This represents a decline of 1.664 million hectares, or around 4 percent.

It is worth noting that the current paddy acreage is still considerably higher than the five-year average of 40.536 million hectares. Last year’s acreage was exceptional, rising sharply to an all-time high.

This year, the problem is not limited to a decline in the area under paddy cultivation. Below-normal rainfall during the monsoon is also affecting crop development in several states. As a result, crop conditions are reportedly weak, particularly in southern India, where paddy is cultivated extensively.

Interestingly, all four major southern rice-producing states—Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu—have recorded a decline in paddy acreage this year. Paddy acreage has also fallen in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

Experts estimate that, compared with 2025–26, India’s gross rice production during the full 2026–27 season could decline by as much as 10 million tonnes.