El Niño Picture Likely to Become Clear by Next Month

23-Apr-2026 07:24 PM

Osaka. A Japanese meteorologist has stated that the atmospheric activity currently unfolding in the Pacific Ocean signals the potential formation of El Niño; however, the true picture of this phenomenon will only become clear next month—specifically in May 2026.

El Niño forms when the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rise. Atmospheric pressure has begun to exert its influence on this surface, though the phenomenon has not yet reached its fully mature stage.

Indications of increased atmospheric activity are being observed near Darwin, Australia. Even if El Niño does form in May, it will remain essential to closely monitor its intensity, dynamics, and magnitude.

It will also be crucial to observe in what form—and for how long—it impacts the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia, as the Southwest Monsoon rains depend significantly on these factors. Monsoon rainfall typically commences in June.