El Niño Likely to Persist Until Next Year

New Delhi: The El Niño weather phenomenon is steadily intensifying and could remain active until the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, the Southwest Monsoon has begun its withdrawal from the northwestern part of the country.

Heavy rainfall is expected in the eastern and central states of India during the final week of the monsoon season. Rainfall conditions have shown the most significant improvement in eastern and northeastern India; the rainfall deficit there has dropped from 29 percent last week to 27 percent, with the potential to decrease further in the coming days. The southern peninsula has also seen some improvement, with the deficit narrowing from 28 percent to 26 percent following recent rainfall.

In the central region, the rainfall deficit relative to the long-period average remains steady at around 6 percent with little change, whereas in northwest India, the deficit has risen from 9 percent to 10 percent. At the all-India level, the rainfall deficit remains at 15 percent. A well-marked low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal has moved towards the eastern coastal regions, bringing heavy rainfall to the eastern and central states; this development could help reduce the overall rainfall deficit.