Canada/USA Pulses Market and its Impact on India

21-Jan-2025 11:34 AM

Canadian and U.S. Pulse Market and Its Impact on India  
Lentils  
2024-25 Season
★ Canadian lentil exports during August to November reached 0.8 million tonnes (Mt), a 14% increase compared to the same period in 2023-24.  
★ India imported the largest share at 0.35 Mt, followed by Turkey and the UAE.  
★ Total Canadian lentil exports are expected to see a sharp rise to 2.1 Mt in 2024-25.  
★ Lentil supply in Canada is estimated to be nearly 0.6 Mt higher than last year, leading to an increase in carry-out stocks.  
★ Average prices for 2024-25 are expected to drop by 17% to $835/tonne, with No. 1 large green lentils maintaining a $540/tonne premium over No. 1 red lentils, down from a $787/tonne premium in 2023-24.  
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2025-26 Season
★ The seeded area in Canada is expected to increase marginally to 1.73 million hectares.  
★ Production may slightly decrease to 2.4 Mt, but with higher carry-in stocks, total supply is projected to rise by 0.1 Mt to 2.8 Mt.  
★ Exports are forecast to increase to 2.2 Mt, with carry-out stocks rising to 0.365 Mt.  
★ Average prices are expected to decline further to $775/tonne due to higher global supply and stable grade distribution.  
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Average Season Prices ($/tonne):
2023-24/ 1,000
2024-25/ 835 (Estimated)
2025-26/ 775 (Estimated)
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U.S. Lentils  
★ U.S. lentil production is estimated at 0.41 Mt for 2024-25, a 59% increase from the previous year.  
★ Exports of lentils from Canada to the U.S. are forecast to decrease to 80,000 tonnes, down from last year.  
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Impact on India  
★ Canada and Australia have substantial lentil exportable supplies.  
★ With adequate availability in these countries, India's dependence on imports may decline if domestic production meets expectations.  
★ Even if India's production is lower than expected, imports can easily fill the gap.  
★ New lentil harvests in India are expected to enter the market soon, along with other pulses like chickpeas, peas, urad (black gram), and pigeon peas.  
★ This surplus and reduced import demand from India may lead to a decline in international prices.