Canada/USA Pulses Market and its Impact on India

21-Jan-2025 11:19 AM

Canadian and U.S. Pulse Market and Its Impact on India
Peas  
2024-25 Season
★ Between August and November 2024, Canadian yellow pea exports reached 1.3 million tonnes (Mt), a 30% increase compared to the same period last year.  
★ India imported the largest share at 0.7 Mt, followed by China at 0.3 Mt.  
★ Total pea exports for the crop year are projected to remain stable at 2.4 Mt.  
★ A slight increase in supply is expected to lead to higher carry-out stocks.  
★ Average prices in 2024-25 are forecast to be lower than 2023-24. Green peas are expected to maintain a $195/tonne premium over yellow peas, compared to a $185/tonne premium last year.  
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2025-26 Season  
★ Seeded area is expected to rise to 1.33 million hectares, reflecting a 2% increase in production to 3.1 Mt.  
★ Supply is forecast to rise slightly to 3.4 Mt.  
★ Exports are expected to remain similar to 2024-25, but carry-out stocks may increase.  
★ Prices are expected to decrease due to higher supply.  
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Average Export Prices (USD/tonne):
Season
2023-24/ 460
2024-25/ 425 (Estimated)
2025-26/ 490 (Estimated)
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U.S. Peas  
★ U.S. pea production for 2024-25 is estimated at 0.76 Mt, up 7% from 2023-24.  
★ Area under cultivation increased, but productivity was weak.  
★ U.S. exports of peas to Canada are forecast at 0.14 Mt in 2024-25.  
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Impact on India  
★ Large-scale exports from Canada and Russia have led to significant losses in India's pulse market due to high purchase prices followed by a market decline.  
★ Future imports are expected to reduce, with around 1 Mt of peas currently awaiting buyers at Indian ports.  
★ Domestic harvests of peas and other pulses (chickpeas, lentils, black gram, pigeon peas) will soon enter the market, creating a surplus.  
★ Trading at high prices is risky as large stocks are likely to take time to clear, even without extending import periods.