Brazil’s soybean production projected to reach a record high of 178 million tonnes

02-Jan-2026 02:20 PM

Rio de Janeiro: In Brazil, a leading market analysis firm has raised its soybean production estimate for the 2025–26 season by 1 million tonnes to 178 million tonnes, citing an increase in sown area and expected improvement in average yields due to favourable weather conditions. This would mark an all-time record. In Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state, preparations for harvesting early-sown soybean crops have begun on a limited scale, with initial yields reported to be high. Meanwhile, in the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, good rainfall has significantly improved crop conditions. Traditionally, this southern state ranks third in soybean production after Mato Grosso and Paraná, but this year it could overtake Paraná to move into second place.

Good rainfall over the past week in Brazil’s central-northern and southern regions has provided substantial benefits to the soybean crop. The highest rainfall has been recorded in Mato Grosso, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. Rainfall is expected to expand further into central and southern areas in the coming days. In top-producing states such as Mato Grosso and Paraná, harvesting preparations for soybeans have begun in some pockets.

At the national level, less than 1 percent of the soybean area has been harvested so far, but the pace is expected to pick up after mid-January and continue more or less until April. If record production is achieved, soybean prices in Brazil could come under some pressure. Chinese importers are already active in the Brazilian market and are booking soybean import deals for shipments in the coming months. This has added to concerns among U.S. producers and exporters.