Risk of Rising Food Inflation as Monsoon Rains Are Impacted

02-Apr-2026 05:50 PM

Mumbai: An international firm has expressed apprehension that, due to the El Niño phenomenon this year, the Southwest monsoon in India is likely to remain weak, resulting in rainfall falling below average in key agricultural states. Consequently, the firm warns that there is a possibility of a decline in food grain production and a subsequent rise in food inflation.

A report issued by the firm notes that, although the government currently holds adequate stocks of rice and wheat—which could offer some relief—the overall level of inflation is likely to remain elevated. The prices of pulses and edible oils may also witness an increase.

According to the report, the impact of El Niño is expected to be most severe during the July-September quarter—a period that is critically important for the cultivation and growth of *Kharif* crops. During this period, rainfall is projected to be 5 to 10 percent lower than normal at the national level, while the intervals between spells of rain could become prolonged.

A significant rainfall deficit is anticipated in the northwestern and central-northern regions of the country, which could particularly disrupt the sowing of coarse cereals and pulses. In certain areas, rainfall is expected to be lower by as much as 20 percent. Furthermore, adequate water stocks are currently unavailable in dams and reservoirs to meet the irrigation requirements of crops.