The global market price of sugar is not expected to rise much
09-Jun-2025 06:16 PM
Mumbai. Although a leading analyst firm has reduced the sugar production estimate during the 2025-26 season from 400 lakh tonnes to 392 lakh tonnes in the Central Southern region of Brazil and from 116 lakh tonnes to 108 lakh tonnes in Thailand as compared to the 2024-25 season, on the other hand, a tremendous increase in its production has been expected in India.
The analyst firm has also reduced the estimate of global surplus production of sugar from 93 lakh tonnes to 78 lakh tonnes. It is clear from this that in the 2025-26 marketing season, the production of sugar globally will be more than its total use and the outstanding stock will increase.
The futures price of raw sugar and white sugar in the New York and London exchanges respectively has come down significantly and it seems difficult to increase much in the near future.
Although the crushing of sugarcane has ended in India and Thailand, the pace of crushing has started gaining momentum in Brazil.
Due to weak global market prices, Indian exporters are not even able to contract and ship the fixed quota of 10 lakh tonnes, whereas this export quota of sugar was issued only on January 20.
The global futures price of raw sugar has come down to 16.44 cents per pound in the New York Exchange, which is Rs 31,325 per tonne in Indian currency.
Its futures price declined by 2 percent during the month of May and 15 percent in the five months from January to May 2025. The futures price of white sugar also fell by 3.8 percent.
The pressure on sugar prices remains due to the supply side being stronger than the demand. Production in India is estimated to increase rapidly. Due to clear weather in Brazil, the pace of sugarcane crushing has increased.
The situation is changing in India. The area of sugarcane has fallen behind last year and the monsoon is also not active. The sugarcane crop is being affected due to high temperature. There will be a need to keep a close watch on its crop in the future.