Sugar Production in Brazil and Asia to be Affected by 'Super El Niño'

Mumbai. The strength and intensity of the El Niño weather cycle are steadily increasing, with a strong likelihood of it evolving into a 'Super El Niño.' This threatens to have a severe adverse impact on weather patterns across South and Southeast Asia as well as Latin America, potentially affecting sugarcane and sugar production in top-producing nations like Brazil, India, and Thailand.

International analysts suggest that global sugar production could shift from a 'surplus' scenario to a 'deficit' one. This implies that while global sugar production previously exceeded demand and consumption, it is expected to fall short in the 2026-27 season, necessitating the use of existing stockpiles. Such a shift could complicate the global sugar supply-demand equation and sustain an upward trend in sugar prices.

Global raw sugar prices have surged by more than 25 percent since July. El Niño typically triggers severe drought conditions in Northern Hemisphere countries while posing a risk of torrential rains and devastating floods in the Southern Hemisphere; neither of these weather extremes is favorable for the sugarcane crop. Major sugar-importing nations may face difficulties due to these rising prices.