Sugar output to rise amid export uncertainty

17-Oct-2025 07:35 PM

New Delhi. Although the Union Food Ministry has estimated a net production of 30 million tons of sugar during the current marketing season, 2025-26, after possible diversion for ethanol production, doubts remain about allowing sugar exports.

The Food Ministry has projected a gross sugar production of 34 million tons, of which 4 million tons is expected to be used for ethanol production. Meanwhile, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), the apex industry body, has initially estimated sugar production at 34.9 million tons.

Net sugar production for the 2024-25 marketing season is estimated to be approximately 26.4 million tons, significantly lower than the 2023-24 production of 31.9 million tons.

The Food Ministry is exercising extreme caution in allowing sugar exports. Sugar production is likely to be lower than expected, while its use for ethanol production may increase.

The Food Ministry is concerned about next season's production. Sugarcane crushing at sugar mills is likely to begin late this year, while heavy rainfall, waterlogging in fields, and devastating floods in Maharashtra are expected to impact the average sugarcane yield and sugar recovery rate.

According to official sources, the Food Ministry is closely monitoring the situation and is not planning to make any hasty decisions.

Production during the October-December quarter will be given special attention, as it will provide a clearer picture of sugar production in the coming months.

As of October 1, 2025, the industry's surplus stock of sugar has declined to around 4.9 million tonnes, a decrease of 3 million tonnes from the surplus stock of 7.9 million tonnes on October 1, 2024.

Overall, approximately 29.5 million tonnes of sugar was produced in the 2024-25 season, while production is expected to improve in 2025-26. But the industry has very little stock.