★ Rising tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted global shipping. In response, the Government of India has introduced several relief measures for exporters. CBIC, DG Shipping, the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, and JNPA have jointly waived fees on amendment/cancellation of export documents, provided relief in ground rent and reefer charges, and issued advisories to ensure transparency in shipping charges. An SOP issued on March 6, 2026, has also simplified export procedures, helping maintain trade continuity.

★ Meanwhile, global weather outlooks have shifted significantly. Earlier expectations of La Niña have now turned towards a likely El Niño (possibly a “Super El Niño”). This raises concerns of below-normal monsoon in India, which could impact Kharif oilseed sowing—especially soybean and groundnut—leading to lower production, tighter domestic supplies, and increased price volatility.

★ At the global level, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea region are affecting edible oil imports. Disruptions in the Red Sea and Suez Canal, along with risks to sunflower oil supplies from Russia and Ukraine, have increased freight costs and supply uncertainties. Additionally, rising crude oil prices are boosting demand for palm oil-based biodiesel, supporting edible oil prices.

★ On the trade front, China’s decision to lift tariffs on Canadian canola meal is expected to intensify competition for India. To sustain its market share in China, Indian rapeseed meal exports will need to remain competitive in both pricing and supply consistency.