Pressure on Wheat Prices Likely Due to Improved Supply and Availability
14-Mar-2026 12:28 PM
New Delhi. In states such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, preparations for the harvest of early-sown wheat crops have commenced. Initial indications suggest that the average yield rate for this crop could be slightly higher than usual. At the national level, the area under wheat cultivation has also expanded by 6.13 lakh hectares—rising from 328.04 lakh hectares last year to reach 334.17 lakh hectares this season.
According to the Union Ministry of Agriculture, a record domestic production of 1,179.40 lakh tonnes of wheat was achieved during the 2024-25 Rabi season. Furthermore, in the current 2025-26 season, production is projected to rise even further, potentially reaching an all-time high of 1,202.10 lakh tonnes. If this estimate proves accurate, it will mark the first instance in history where wheat production has crossed the 120-million-tonne (12 crore tonnes) mark. This would represent a monumental achievement for the country.
The Food Corporation of India (FCI) already holds a massive existing stock of wheat, while a procurement target of 303 lakh tonnes has been set for the current year. Since the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat has been fixed at ₹2,585 per quintal—whereas wholesale market prices are currently trading below this level—it is anticipated that government procurement of wheat will successfully meet its designated target. Even after this procurement, farmers are expected to retain a substantial marketable surplus stock of wheat. Under these circumstances, the ease of supply and availability of wheat in the open market could exert downward pressure on prices.
The government has already authorized the export of 25 lakh tonnes of wheat and 10 lakh tonnes of wheat products; however, securing export contracts is proving difficult because domestic prices remain higher than prevailing global market rates. Exports would likely become feasible if the price were to drop by ₹300–400 per quintal.