★ Food Corporation of India (FCI) will offer 126,000 tonnes of wheat on Wednesday under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS). Last Wednesday, FCI had offered 117,000 tonnes, of which only about 73 percent, or nearly 85,000 tonnes, were sold.

In the upcoming auction, Punjab will be offered 26,000 tonnes, Assam 23,000 tonnes and Haryana 10,000 tonnes of wheat. Uttar Pradesh will get 8,000 tonnes, while Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will be offered 7,500 tonnes each.

★ Although the quantity offered in each auction has been increasing, actual sales have been declining steadily. Around 89,000 tonnes were sold in the third tender, 88,000 tonnes in the fourth, and only 84,000 tonnes in the fifth tender. The main buyers in these auctions were Punjab, Assam and Haryana, indicating that offtake is better in states where FCI procurement was higher.

★ Tender prices have also been declining across successive auctions. In contrast, lifting in states such as Uttar Pradesh has been weak, suggesting that markets there are already well supplied and wheat is readily available at lower prices.

★ During the current season, wheat prices have not touched the ₹2,950 per quintal level, compared with around ₹3,200 per quintal in February 2025 last year. In local mandis of Madhya Pradesh, Itarsi wheat is trading at ₹2,400–2,500 per quintal, while prices in Gwalior are around ₹2,525 per quintal, both below the MSP of ₹2,585.

★ Good production and comfortable stock levels have ensured ample supply throughout the season. With four to five OMSS tenders still remaining and the arrival of the new crop set to begin in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, further pressure on prices cannot be ruled out. If weather conditions remain favourable and a bumper crop materialises, the market could face additional downside pressure.

★ Overall, current stock levels and supply fundamentals point to a bearish outlook for the wheat market. At the same time, this situation could once again present an opportunity for FCI to procure a record crop.